卡拉曼谈价值投资与调仓

以下内容节选自卡拉曼《Margin of safety》第6章：The importance of a margin of safety.

The disciplined pursuit, of bargains makes value investing very much a risk-averse approach. The greatest challenge for value investors is maintaining the required discipline. Being a value investor usually means standing apart from the crowd, challenging conventional wisdom, and opposing the prevailing investment winds. It can be a very lonely undertaking. A value investor may experience poor, even horrendous, performance compared with that of other investors or the market as a whole during prolonged periods of market overvaluation. Yet over the long run the value approach works so successfully that few, if any, advocates of the philosophy ever abandon it.

对低价股票的严格追求，使价值投资成为一种高度规避风险的投资方式。价值投资者面临的最大挑战，就是保持必要的自律。成为一名价值投资者通常意味着与大众保持距离，挑战传统观念，并反对主流投资趋势。这可能是一项非常孤独的事业。在市场长期高估的时期，价值投资者的表现可能远不如其他投资者或整个市场理想。然而从长远来看，价值投资方法取得了如此成功的成果，以至于几乎没有或根本没有支持者会放弃这一理念。

An investment must be purchased at a discount from underlying worth. This makes it a good absolute value. Being a good absolute value alone, however, is not sufficient for investors must choose only the best absolute values among those that are currently available. A stock trading a one-half of its underlying value may be attractive, but another trading at one-fourth of its worth is the better bargain. This dual discipline compounds the difficulty of the investment task for value investors compared with most others.

投资必须以低于标的内在价值的价格购入，这使其成为一种良好的绝对价值。然而，仅具备良好的绝对价值并不足以让投资者做出选择，他们还必须从当前可选的项目中挑选出最优的绝对价值。一只股票若交易价格仅为其内在价值的一半可能颇具吸引力，但另一只交易价格仅为其价值四分之一的股票则更具性价比。这种双重要求使价值投资者的投资任务比大多数其他投资者更加困难。

Value investors continually compare potential new investments with their current holdings in order to ensure that they own only the most undervalued opportunities available. Investors should never be afraid to reexamine current holdings as new opportunities appear, even if that means realizing losses one the sale of current holdings. In other words, no investment should be considered sacred when a better one comes along.

价值投资者会持续将潜在的新投资与现有持仓进行比较，以确保自己只持有最具低估潜力的投资机会。当新的投资机会出现时，投资者不应畏惧重新审视现有持仓，即使这意味着在出售现有资产时需要承担损失。换句话说，一旦有更好的投资出现，任何投资都不应被视为神圣不可侵犯。

个人解读：遵循施洛斯的策略，通常而言，投资者会卖出盈利的股票，增加账面浮亏股票的仓位以摊薄成本，然而这只是表象，也远非绝对。从逻辑上讲，投资者管理的是整个组合，不同股票的仓位是其中非常重要的要素，调仓并不应该仅仅看浮盈还是浮亏，也应该结合仓位、机会成本来评估，投资者应该锚定的是使整个组合风险尽量小，潜在收益尽量大。当绝佳的机会出现时，其他持仓都是比较和审视的对象，尤其是仓位较高的。

不过施洛斯也说了，换股很难，你可能做错两次，一般而言他并不这样做。

简而言之，何时卖出并不能成为衡量是否是价值投资的准则，价值投资的关键是买入，以远低于内在价值的价格买入。

声明：非投资建议